How Abbas lost influence over Gaza and the West Bank and what it means for Palestinian statehood – Firstpost

As Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas turns 90, he presides over shrinking spheres of power in the West Bank, while remaining largely irrelevant to Gaza’s future and increasingly isolated from the people he claims to represent.

Abbas, once seen as a leader capable of negotiating Palestinian statehood, now stands at the center of a political dynamic where Palestinian aspirations are weaker than at any time in the past two decades. Their declining legitimacy, Israel’s strong hold, internal political paralysis and the absence of viable alternatives have collectively pushed the Palestinian state project to the brink.

Weak presidency with declining public confidence

Abbas, one of the world’s oldest serving leaders, has spent 20 years in office without holding elections. A recent PCPSR poll showed a sharp decline in his position, showing that 80% of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza want him to resign, and only one-third support the role of the Palestinian Authority (PA). post-war Gaza. Critics accused him of ruling from a narrow inner circle, curbing political participation, and maintaining security coordination with Israel even as settlements expanded and settler violence increased.

This loss of legitimacy is compounded by the stagnation of the prospects for a Palestinian state. International bodies and legal experts have described Israel’s war in Gaza as tantamount to genocide, Israel denies the accusation while Israeli leaders openly push for the annexation of parts of the West Bank. For Palestinians, this trajectory, coupled with Abbas’s failure to mount any effective challenge, has led to frustration and a leadership vacuum.

How Gaza and the West Bank fell out of Abbas’ control

Abbas’s political decline began long before the current crisis. Their authority suffered significant losses in 2007 when Hamas violently ousted the PA from Gaza, reinforcing the division between Gaza and the West Bank. In the years since, Abbas has retained control only over isolated areas in the West Bank, where Israeli control over land, resources, borders, and movement has steadily diminished the PA’s relevance.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has argued that Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-term strategy is clearly designed to weaken Abbas and prevent any progress toward a negotiated settlement. This includes withholding tax revenues estimated at $3 billion from the PA and publicly questioning Abbas’s commitment to peace. Despite the PA’s extensive security cooperation with Israel, many Palestinians view the arrangement as collaboration with an occupying army, further eroding trust.

A political vacuum that fuels support for Hamas and limits future options

Years of political paralysis under Abbas’s leadership have closed the doors to democratic participation and nonviolent mobilization. Analysts argue that by suppressing political competitors and avoiding elections, Abbas has inadvertently strengthened Hamas, which presents itself as the only force “doing something” against the Israeli occupation. Even Palestinians critical of Hamas’s actions view Abbas’s inaction as an abdication of leadership.

In this context, Israeli pressure to prevent any PA role in Gaza after the war has left open the possibility of an international governance body dominated by Israel’s allies. Palestinian analysts fear it would deepen political fragmentation and dash any remaining hopes of reuniting Gaza and the West Bank – the minimal territorial basis for the state.

Reform promises face deep skepticism

Under increasing pressure, Abbas has initiated reforms: promising elections after the Gaza war, creating a joint commission with France to draft a new constitution, and initiating limited anti-corruption actions such as removing the transport minister. But most Palestinians doubt he will follow through. Polls show that, if elections are held, imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti would finish ahead of Abbas, with Hamas candidates also well ahead of him.

Analysts say reform faces structural resistance from both the US and Israel, with neither wanting a fully empowered Palestinian leadership capable of challenging Israeli policy. As Ines Abdel Razak of the Palestine Institute for Public Diplomacy says, “Any effective ruler will confront the Israeli occupation.”

What does the fall of Abbas mean for the Palestinian state?

Abbas’s shrinking authority, combined with Israel’s decisive control over the land, leaves Palestinians without a coherent leadership strategy at a moment of deep crisis. US President Donald Trump’s proposal for an international council to run Gaza with PA participation only after unspecified reforms shore Abbas. And analysts argue that Israel may continue to block PA withdrawal into Gaza to avoid strengthening claims to Palestinian unity and statehood.

As former PA minister Ghassan Khatib says: “Israel is the party that is making decisions on the ground.”

As Abbas enters his tenth decade of decline in political relevance, the Palestinians face an uncertain future – fragmented territory, weak institutions, and a leadership crisis that threatens the basis of their long-term quest for statehood.

with inputs from agencies